Trade promotion data to category growth: the shopper insights edge
Key takeaways
TELUS Trade Promotion Management (TPM) tracks spend, but TELUS Shopper Insights and Research helps reveal why promotions succeed or fail.
Promotional lift and incremental growth are not the same. Only incrementality drives true category growth and positive trade promotion ROI.
Virtual shelf testing validates promotional strategies before in-store execution, reducing financial risk and protecting trade spend.
Connecting TPM data with predictive analytics and behavioral insights creates a closed-loop growth system that transforms trade spend into a dynamic growth engine.
CPG manufacturers that align trade spend with shopper decision-making can drive measurable category expansion.
Executive summary
For consumer packaged goods manufacturers, managing trade spend often feels like solving a puzzle with missing pieces. Brands invest up to 20% of revenue into promotions, yet McKinsey research reveals that 72% of US trade promotions fail to turn a profit. You track promotional spend in your trade promotion management system to gain visibility, but a critical question remains: How do you know if a planned promotion will actually drive category growth, or if it will simply shift existing volume around?
The real pain point is data silos. Trade marketing managers are trapped trying to optimize promotions using backward-looking syndicated POS data and disjointed internal spreadsheets that hide margin erosion and subsidized volume. The most successful CPG manufacturers are connecting trade promotion management directly with predictive analytics and shopper behavior validation to create a continuous, strategic loop. TELUS Shopper Insights is the product that bridges this gap, transforming trade spend from a static expense into a dynamic growth engine.
Understanding the foundation: What trade promotion management reveals
Trade promotion management provides the operational truth. It tracks lump sums, ad fees, per-rate discounts and promotional spend across all customers in one clear view of your P&L. This visibility is essential, but it only answers one question: What happened?
TPM data shows you:
Total promotional spend by customer and time period
Discount depth, frequency and duration
Volume lifted during promotional periods
Cost per unit moved
What it doesn't show you is whether that spend actually grew your category or simply subsidized shoppers who would have bought anyway.
Trade promotion management: smarter promotions, seamless execution
The growth gap: Why data without context falls short
Here's the uncomfortable truth: many trade promotions result in a zero-sum game.
When a CPG manufacturer runs a steep discount without behavioral insights, it frequently subsidizes existing loyal customers or cannibalizes a sister SKU on the same shelf. Retailers find this frustrating because the promotional lift merely shifts volume from week A to week B without expanding total category dollar value.
"Trade spend, while it's an expense, may not be an expense that you can influence and lower. It's really about how you reallocate those trade spend dollars to really drive bottom-line growth or drive top-line growth."
Alex Sodek
Shopper Insights Team Lead, TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods
This reallocation requires understanding the difference between two critical metrics:
Promotional Lift
Definition
Total volume spike during a promotional period
Business Impact
Looks impressive on a spreadsheet but doesn't guarantee profitability
Incremental Growth
Definition
Net positive volume generated strictly because of the promotion, accounting for subsidization and cannibalization
Business Impact
True indicator of trade promotion ROI and category expansion
Lift is an operational metric. Incrementality is a financial and strategic health metric. Many CPG manufacturers optimize for the wrong one.
Shopper decision behavior: why TPM data alone isn't enough
According to TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods food and beverage study targeting 3,000 global CPG shoppers, consumers make 55% of their purchasing choices directly at the shelf. This means your planogram optimization and promotional strategy must align with how shoppers actually think and decide, not how you think they should.
Shopper insights reveal the mental hierarchy of your category:
Do shoppers shop by ingredient, benefit, brand or occasion?
Which segments are driving growth and which are missing?
Where are the white space opportunities that could drive incremental growth?
These questions matter because they determine whether a promotion attracts new buyers or simply encourages existing customers to stock up.
For example, testing might reveal that a minor price discount paired with an optimized shelf-talker yields higher incrementality than a deep price cut hidden in the aisle. Or that repositioning a product to align with a shopper's natural shopping flow increases basket size more than a promotional discount.
Ready to connect your trade spend to category growth?
Building your category growth story: The retailer pressure test
To build a compelling story that resonates with retailers, you need to answer specific pressure test questions. These questions shift the conversation from "Help my brand sell more" to "Here is how we grow your total aisle revenue."
Retailer category challenge and question
Does promotion drive incremental sales for the portfolio? Is it stealing share from a competitor or growing the category?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Provides a strong measure validating that growth is real and not just share shifting.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Share of sales (promo vs. control cell)
Source of volume index (% from brand switching vs. new category buyers)
How do shoppers make decisions in this category? Do they shop by ingredient, benefit, brand or occasion and how should the aisle reflect this?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Identifies the mental hierarchy of the shopper structure, which is then translated into shelf layout to match natural shopping flows.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Identifies solutions that maximize sales for the overall category, by subcategory and by brand
Measures overall improvement of shoppability
Which shopper segments are driving growth in the category and which are missing? How can you better engage high-value segments to grow baskets?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Targets the right shoppers with the right messaging.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Segment-specific buy rate (%)
Demographic basket size (units/spend per segment)
What is the optimal assortment to maximize category dollars? Which items are essential, and where can overlap be reduced to improve shelf productivity?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Identifies core baseline items and duplicate SKUs to determine essential items and remove redundancy.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Demand transferability index (% of shoppers switching to another SKU vs. walking away)
SKU deletion impact (% change in total category sales)
What white space opportunities can drive incremental growth? Where can you expand the category by attracting new buyers or meeting unmet needs?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Pinpoints opportunities to expand beyond existing shoppers by meeting unfulfilled demand spaces.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Buy rate (%) for new products
Incremental category reach (% of non-buyers purchasing the new product)
What is the optimal shelf and aisle organization to maximize sales and shoppability? How should products be organized to reflect consumer behavior?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Identifies the layout that matches natural shopping flows to improve navigation and increase basket size.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Impact on category sales
Findability score (average time-to-find target products in seconds)
Shelf navigation hotspots (heatmap fixation percentage)
How will this proposed shelf strategy perform in a competitive environment? Have you quantified the impact on sales along with substitution?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Models real-world competitive reactions, share capture and cannibalization risks, allowing you to review competitive dynamics before execution.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Cannibalization rate
Brand switching
Category sales (test vs. control cell)
How will your new product introduction impact shelf organization and category sales? Should items be grouped with the parent brand or in a dedicated layout?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Identifies the optimal shelf placement for the new product to maximize its individual sales while minimizing cannibalization of the existing portfolio.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Net category sales expansion %
Source of volume allocation (% incremental vs. % cannibalized)
Have these strategies been validated in a realistic shopping environment? Have changes been tested to quantify real-world impact?
TELUS Shopper Insights strategic outcome
Measures real-world consumer choices before launch, confirming consumer behavior before making an in-store commitment.
Predictive category growth metrics & KPIs
Category sales (test vs. control cell)
Portfolio sales (% change)
Answering these questions requires more than historical TPM data. It requires understanding shopper behavior, predicting what will work and validating your strategy before execution.
Predictive trade promotion analytics: Modeling what works before you spend
Once you understand historical performance and shopper behavior, the next step is prediction. TELUS Trade Promotion Optimization uses constraint-based modeling and scenario mining to run "what-if" scenarios before you commit budget.
Instead of executing blindly, you can model:
How different price points affect demand elasticity
Which promotional mechanics (discount depth, frequency and duration) drive the highest incremental volume
How competitive reactions might impact your share capture
Whether a new product introduction will expand the category or cannibalize existing SKUs
But modeling alone isn't enough. The planned promotional lift must be validated in a simulated retail environment before going to market.
The growth formula: Connecting TPM, predictive analytics and shopper validation
The most successful CPG manufacturers operate a closed-loop system that connects three critical capabilities:
Step 1: Establish historical operational truth
Use trade promotion management to build a clear view of your P&L. Track all spend, establish accurate baseline forecasts and measure actual promotional lift. This is your foundation for understanding what happened and why.
Step 2: Align promotional spend with total P&L wallet
Use predictive analytics to model "what-if" scenarios. Run constraint-based analysis to determine the ideal pricing, frequency and discount depth. Identify which promotional levers actually drive behavior and where you can reallocate trade spend for maximum impact.
Step 3: Move from descriptive to predictive growth
Use TELUS Shopper Insights and virtual shelf testing to validate behavior before execution. Test packaging visibility, planogram placement, competitive reactions and messaging formats in a realistic digital retail environment. This validation loop protects trade spend by gathering real-world behavioral data in a controlled setting.
TELUS Virtual Shelf Testing has a proven +0.90 correlation to actual in-market sales, meaning what you learn in the virtual environment translates directly to real-world results.
Real-world application: How shopper insights turns CPG challenges into growth opportunities
TELUS Shopper Insights has helped CPG manufacturers solve real retail challenges through virtual shelf testing. Here are three examples:
Case Study: Adding energy drinks to checkout drink coolers
A leading energy drinks manufacturer was excluded from the drink coolers section in a dominant US mass grocery retailer. The brand needed to prove that adding their products to the cooler would drive higher sales for the category.
TELUS Shopper Insights ran a virtual shopping study in the US with a nationally representative sample, where consumers were exposed to the front-end store environment and asked to shop the beverage cooler as they normally would. The test compared the cooler with and without the energy drink products.
The results were clear: the enhanced cooler containing the energy drinks demonstrated increased sales and shopper satisfaction. Shoppers preferred the assortment with the energy drinks included. This shopper-driven research created a convincing sales story that enabled the energy drinks brand to demonstrate to the retailer that the new enhanced cooler assortment generates a significant increase in sales. The brand moved from excluded to essential shelf space.
Case Study: Optimizing snack aisle arrangement
A global snack manufacturer partnered with a leading US grocery retailer who wanted to arrange the aisle by sub-category with checkerboard blocking. The challenge was determining which shelf arrangement would actually drive the most sales.
TELUS Shopper Insights tested shelf variations in the US with a nationally representative sample, where consumers were exposed to a simulated retail environment. The research measured how each scenario impacted purchase incidence and sales for both the portfolio and the category.
Once the winning shelf arrangement was activated in-store, the results confirmed the virtual test findings: the shopper segment layout increased shoppability, built bigger baskets and grew sales by 5%.
"Based on results from this virtual shopping test, we updated the in-store layout, which quickly sealed the deal. In-market results confirmed that the Shopper Segment layout increases shoppability, builds bigger baskets and grows sales."
Director of Consumer Strategy & Insights, Global Snack Manufacturer
Case Study: Promotional pricing strategy for ice cream
A leading ice cream manufacturer needed to know how to communicate promotional pricing for a new line of single-serve products: 10 for $10 or 99 cents each.
Consumers participated in a large-scale virtual shopping study across two major US grocery banners, where they were exposed to the ice cream aisle, covering 20 freezer doors and over 400 SKUs, and asked to shop the category as they normally would. This level of complexity is exactly what ShopperIQ is designed to execute. The test compared everyday pricing (99 cents each) versus promoted pricing (10 for $10).
The results showed that the 10 for $10 strategy attracted more shoppers and generated greater volume. Shoppers bought an average of 5 units when priced at 10 for $10 versus only 4 units when priced at 99 cents each.
"Testing retail strategies in the context of a virtual store allows us to see and measure differences in behavior because what people say is not always what they do."
Director of Analytics & Insights, Leading CPG Manufacturer
The manufacturer quickly implemented this pricing strategy at retail, driving incremental variety seeking and multiple unit purchases.
Business impact: Driving incremental growth and category expansion
When CPG manufacturers connect TPM data with TELUS Shopper Insights, the business impact is measurable:
Reduced promotional waste: Manufacturers stop funding tactics that subsidize existing customers
Higher trade promotion ROI: Every dollar allocated to trade spend is backed by predictive analytics and validated by consumer behavior
Faster innovation success: New products are positioned based on shopper insights, not guesswork
Stronger retailer partnerships: Manufacturers shift the conversation from "Help my brand sell more" to "Here is how we grow your total aisle revenue"
True category growth: Promotions attract new buyers and expand usage occasions instead of just shifting volume
Senior Customer Solution Architect Justin Balke explains the strategic importance of data-driven decision-making:
"Innovation is really the key growth driver in today's economic climate. Data-driven insights and decisions around products you may have never sold to a customer are imperative in a time where every single penny counts."
Justin Balke
Senior Customer Solution Architect, TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods
This is exactly what TELUS Shopper Insights enables. By validating innovation positioning and measuring true incrementality before launch, CPG manufacturers can confidently invest in new products that expand their categories.
How to connect TPM data with shopper insights: getting started
Building a closed-loop growth system doesn't require overhauling your entire operation. Start with these steps:
Step 1: Audit your current state
Review your last 12 months of TPM data. Calculate true incrementality for your top 10 promotions by isolating baseline demand, subsidization and cannibalization. How many of your promotions actually drove category growth?
Step 2: Identify your biggest opportunity
Which category, customer or product line has the largest gap between promotional lift and incrementality? This is where you'll see the fastest ROI from behavioral insights.
Step 3: Test before you scale
Run a virtual shelf test on your next planned promotional reset or new product launch. Validate your planogram, pricing strategy and messaging in a realistic environment before committing in-store budget.
Step 4: Close the loop
Connect your TPM data with predictive analytics and behavioral validation. Use insights from virtual testing to refine your promotional execution and measure the impact on true incrementality.
How TELUS Shopper Insights drives category growth
TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods provides an integrated portfolio that spans your entire retail growth journey. Trade Promotion Management establishes a clear view of your P&L. TELUS Shopper Insights validates real-world behavior through virtual shelf testing and shopper analytics. TELUS Trade Promotion Optimization leverages automated data harmonization and scenario mining to predict what works.
Rather than working in fragmented silos, TELUS connects your promotional tracking with predictive "what-if" modeling and real-life shelf testing. This comprehensive ecosystem ensures that every dollar allocated to trade spend is backed by predictive analytics and validated by true consumer behavior.
The result is category growth that's measurable, repeatable and profitable. TELUS Shopper Insights is the critical bridge between what happened and what will happen next.
